Boise State vs New Mexico 9/29/2012

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Boise State is a heavy favorite winning 97% of simulations over New Mexico. Joe Southwick is averaging 289 passing yards and 2.66 TDs per simulation and D.J. Harper is projected for 89 rushing yards and a 80% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 3% of simulations where New Mexico wins, B.R. Holbrook averages 0.73 TD passes vs 0.68 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.27 TDs to 0.86 interceptions. Kasey Carrier averages 38 rushing yards and 0.15 rushing TDs when New Mexico wins and 32 yards and 0.09 TDs in losses. Boise State has a 44% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 98% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NMEX +30

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